How forecasts
work.
Each game has an expected margin, a BYU win chance, and a likely range of results.
What the forecast shows
Expected margin is BYU's score minus its opponent's score, including overtime. Positive means BYU is favored; negative means the opponent is favored. The game page shows the middle 50%, central 80%, and central 95% ranges because uncertainty has more than one useful scale.
Preview vs. official
Schedule estimates change as new results arrive. The official forecast posts 48 hours before kickoff and stays on the record. A real sportsbook line appears as a separate purple marker on the margin chart and never affects our forecast.
Why the number moved
Five pieces add up exactly to the expected margin. Overall team strength says which team looks stronger on a neutral field. Game location, how the offenses and defenses line up, recent form, and rest can then move that number. Tap “What this means” on a game page for a plain-language explanation of any piece. When a prior value exists, football changes are shown separately from corrected source data.
How results are tracked
After each game, we compare the final margin with the original forecast and likely range. When validated play-by-play is available, the offline receipt can also identify the largest game-state swings. Missing play data leaves those claims out; only forecasts posted before kickoff count toward the 2026 results.